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Uncertainty costs, and avoiding it also teaches

In shortNot knowing what comes next is tiring, and avoiding it brings relief today but keeps the fear going.

The idea

Not knowing what comes next asks the brain and body to prepare for several possibilities at once. Avoiding the situation reduces that uncertainty straight away, which is why it happens again. But it also stops the child finding out that what they feared does not happen. The aim is to make uncertainty bearable, step by step, not to remove it.

What to try

  • Say what you know and what you don’t yet: ‘I know we leave at 9. I don’t know yet who will be at the park.’
  • Agree in advance what to do if something goes differently.
  • Add variation little by little, once a routine is stable.

The common mistake

Removing everything that is hard, permanently, thinking that protects the child.

Recognise this in someone? The Companion helps you think it through.Open the Companion ›Snip what matters and keep your own notes, ready to share with school.Open in Bounded Learn ›

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Short, plain pieces by the researchers and good writers.

Books

The Experience MachineAndy Clark · 2023

How the predictive brain shapes what we see, feel and do, with many everyday examples.

See on Amazon ›

Amazon links are affiliate links: if you buy, Bounded Uncertainty receives a small commission at no cost to you.

The science behind itHow strong the evidence is, the model, videos and references.

How strong the evidence is

Promising Good studies, but little tested with children at home or school, or the step to daily life is our interpretation.

External videos, chosen because they agree with these ideas. Bounded Uncertainty has no link to the channels.

References

  • Carleton, R. N. (2016). Into the unknown: a review and synthesis of contemporary models involving uncertainty. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 39, 30–43.

For professionals who want to dig deeper: Lumipedia ›

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