Principles for living
Thinking ahead about what could go wrong
In shortPicture what could go wrong and plan ‘if this happens, I will do that’, to be ready rather than worried.
The idea
The Stoics imagined in the morning what could go wrong during the day, not to worry but to be ready. We now know that pairing a wish with a concrete obstacle and a plan (‘if this happens, I will do that’) makes it more likely to act well when the obstacle appears. The brain already has the prediction and the response ready, so the unexpected surprises less.
What to try
- The day before, think together of one likely obstacle and one response: ‘if the bus is late, I will…’.
- Write the response as a short ‘if… then…’ sentence.
- Afterwards, check whether it happened and whether the response worked, and adjust.
The common mistake
Imagining everything that could go wrong without planning responses, which feeds worry instead of preparing.
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How the predictive brain shapes what we see, feel and do, with many everyday examples.
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The science behind itHow strong the evidence is, the model, videos and references.
How strong the evidence is
Well established Many studies, with results that repeat.
Gollwitzer (1999) showed that implementation intentions (‘if situation X, then response Y’) increase the likelihood of acting, because they hand control to the situational cue. Oettingen (2012) describes mental contrasting: imagining the desired outcome and then the obstacle in reality, which increases commitment when expectations are realistic. In predictive terms, rehearsing the obstacle and the response creates intermediate-level predictions that absorb error before it travels up the hierarchy (see ‘When one error changes everything’). The Stoic premeditatio malorum is a forerunner, but it should be limited to likely obstacles and tied to responses, so that it does not become rumination.
References
- Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54(7), 493–503.
- Oettingen, G. (2012). Future thought and behaviour change. European Review of Social Psychology, 23(1), 1–63.
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