Thinking in systems
Small causes, big effects (and the reverse)
In shortA small change in the right place can change a whole day; a big effort in the wrong place may change nothing.
The idea
In complex systems, cause and effect are not proportional. A small change in the right place (the first sentence of the morning) can change the day; a large effort in the wrong place may change nothing. Systems can also be near a tipping point, where little is needed to shift to another pattern, and show signs beforehand: more variability, slower recovery.
What to try
- Look for the leverage point: the early moment on the path where a small change has most effect.
- Notice when the child takes longer to recover than usual: it is information.
- If ‘more of the same’ has not worked, change where you intervene, not just how hard.
The common mistake
Concluding that if something small did not help, something big is needed.
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Short, plain pieces by the researchers and good writers.
The science behind itHow strong the evidence is, the model, videos and references.
How strong the evidence is
A way of thinking A lens for interpreting what a child does, not a rule from trials.
Nonlinear systems can have multiple stable states, hysteresis and critical transitions; before these, critical slowing down, rising variance and autocorrelation are observed (Scheffer et al., 2009). For practice: repeated measures over time (brief diaries) let these signs be seen and help choose moments for intervention.
More technical books
Tipping points and the signs that come before them.
See on Amazon ›Amazon links are affiliate links: if you buy, Bounded Uncertainty receives a small commission at no cost to you.
External videos, chosen because they agree with these ideas. Bounded Uncertainty has no link to the channels.
References
- Scheffer, M., et al. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461, 53–59.
- Scheffer, M. (2009). Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton University Press.
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